Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 2.052552 2.157484 2.269639 2.399315 2.546282 2.709131 2.905350
2025-06-15 1.944204 2.080829 2.233018 2.417561 2.638882 2.900898 3.243170
2025-06-22 1.820497 1.968905 2.138298 2.349794 2.612830 2.938551 3.389849
2025-06-29 1.752257 1.912961 2.100498 2.341137 2.651153 3.052939 3.646046
2025-07-06 1.677959 1.843697 2.040110 2.297090 2.636819 3.092665 3.800823
2025-07-13 1.649004 1.826202 2.040225 2.327198 2.719505 3.271142 4.193134
2025-07-20 1.635683 1.826132 2.060737 2.383622 2.841599 3.521346 4.766069
2025-07-27 1.601187 1.797309 2.042144 2.385240 2.884834 3.656816 5.178324
2025-08-03 1.570901 1.772025 2.026198 2.388433 2.929329 3.799280 5.654064
2025-08-10 1.519956 1.718133 1.969886 2.331282 2.876893 3.770363 5.747700
2025-08-17 1.489602 1.689604 1.945869 2.318217 2.890921 3.858435 6.150007
2025-08-24 1.462138 1.663719 1.924080 2.306703 2.905779 3.949365 6.603907
2025-08-31 1.432700 1.635173 1.898703 2.290282 2.914254 4.035634 7.118937
2025-09-07 1.417540 1.624693 1.897220 2.308540 2.980804 4.246651 8.203807
2025-09-14 1.376794 1.578935 1.845275 2.248159 2.909073 4.162245 8.161270
2025-09-21 1.356016 1.559262 1.828892 2.240899 2.928230 4.274222 9.026272
2025-09-28 1.325777 1.526062 1.792470 2.201163 2.887498 4.249120 9.270944
2025-10-05 1.318799 1.523941 1.799559 2.228798 2.968403 4.513917 11.446497
2025-10-12 1.319403 1.531980 1.821176 2.280227 3.098093 4.933859 16.645961
2025-10-19 1.305056 1.519049 1.812046 2.281779 3.133758 5.124645 21.806673
2025-10-26 1.291829 1.507269 1.804114 2.284728 3.172275 5.335572 32.495671
2025-11-02 1.263546 1.474007 1.763857 2.232801 3.097629 5.198777 30.600746
2025-11-09 1.247675 1.457702 1.748110 2.220920 3.103073 5.307261 44.900828